You got altered information
You were told to not take chances…
That pretty much says it all…except for the underlying assumption that someone out there as unaltered information. But the mere process of categorizing information already filters and alters information
Information in and of itself is very rich, but the way humans capture information is limited. The multi-layered experience (three dimensions in space, the temporal moment, sound, smell, texture, etc.) are not adequately recorded, transmitted or stored in any way.
It is almost as primitive as the old baseball scorecard. While the scorecard is an adequate means for telling what happened during the game, it doesn’t capture or transmit the whole experience. It may be enough for fans who follow stats, but stats don’t tell the whole story.
Even watching real time video of an incident doesn’t tell the whole story.
In essence, all information is altered or at best incomplete. In that situation, you really have no choice but to take chances.
And you can only place your bets based on what you think know. And unfortunately, that has to be enough